The Developing Very Strong El Niño Event (2026-27)- Implications for Ghana and Recommended National Preparedness Measures

Ghana's experience of past El Niño episodes, particularly the very strong events of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 and the moderate 2023/24 event, shows the country's vulnerability to rainfall variability and associated impacts on agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation and public health. The nature and severity of these impacts have varied considerably between events and across the country, and some of the most damaging Ghanaian climate shocks have occurred outside El Niño years. El Niño increases the likelihood of certain climate anomalies but does not produce uniform conditions across Ghana, and its influence depends strongly on the state of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

GMet's observations and seasonal forecasts for 2026 have already highlighted these differences. Exceptionally heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in parts of southern Ghana in June, while prolonged dry spells subsequently affected farming activities in parts of northern Ghana. The updated September–November (SON) and October–December (OND) seasonal outlooks indicate predominantly normal-to-below-normal rainfall across much of the country, with above-normal rainfall expected in some areas. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also projected for most locations, with regional variations.